In 2025, the trend lines all indicate a national move away from traditionally structured schooling. By mathematical modeling to extend these trends across population figures and schooling, predicting the future is simple.

• Homeschooling growth is between 51-65% year-over-year in 2025, down slightly from 2020 and 2021 in rate of growth.
• School Choice with vouchers continuing to pass legislatively in more and more Stats could displace as much as $360B, 40% of all funding for traditional schools by 2026.
• Continued 3-20% year-over-year student attrition from traditional schools, especially public urban and many suburban districts.
• 10-40% absenteeism rates depending on geographic area.
• 8%+ year-over-year teacher losses, and additional loss of 6% nationally for the 2025-26 school year, now equivalent to a shortage of 30% of needed classroom teachers.
• School closures, public traditional as well as all charters, microschools and private schools displaced 984,020 students in 2023-24 in nearly 5,000 closures, a trend that accelerated in 2024-25.